Chapter 5 Contemporary South Asia

This chapter shifts focus from global post-Cold War developments to the dynamics within **South Asia**. The region gained significant international attention, particularly after India and Pakistan became nuclear powers. The focus is often on the area's various conflicts, including unresolved border and water disputes, as well as conflicts stemming from insurgency, ethnic strife, and resource sharing, which contribute to regional turbulence.

However, there is also a recognition within South Asia that regional development and prosperity depend on cooperation among the member states. This chapter explores both the nature of **conflict and cooperation** in the region, examining how these dynamics are often shaped by the domestic politics of the individual countries. It begins by defining the region and providing an overview of the domestic political situations in some of the major countries.

This image, an adaptation of a famous artwork, potentially symbolizes the aspirations for freedom, democracy, or collective action within the South Asian region.

What Is South Asia?

South Asia is a region characterized by a coexistence of rivalry and goodwill, suspicion and trust, hope and despair, often symbolized by events like intense India-Pakistan cricket matches alongside displays of hospitality between fans. The term **'South Asia'** typically encompasses seven countries:

• Bangladesh
• Bhutan
• India
• The Maldives
• Nepal
• Pakistan
• Sri Lanka

The region enjoys a degree of natural insulation provided by the Himalayas in the north and the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal in the south, west, and east, contributing to its distinct linguistic, social, and cultural characteristics. While Afghanistan and Myanmar are sometimes included in broader discussions, China is considered an important neighboring player but not part of the region itself. In this chapter, South Asia refers specifically to the seven core countries listed, representing immense diversity within a shared geo-political space.

The political systems within South Asia are diverse. Despite facing various challenges and limitations, **India and Sri Lanka** have maintained and successfully operated **democratic systems** since their independence from British rule.

**Pakistan and Bangladesh** have experienced periods of both **civilian and military rule**. Bangladesh transitioned to and has largely remained a democracy in the post-Cold War era. Pakistan saw alternating democratic governments (under Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif) after the Cold War but faced a military coup in 1999 led by General Pervez Musharraf, returning to civilian rule only in 2008.

**Nepal** was historically a Hindu kingdom and later a constitutional monarchy. Political parties and the populace consistently pushed for a more democratic system. After periods of struggle and the king attempting to assert executive powers, the monarchy was abolished in 2008, and Nepal became a **democratic republic**, adopting a new constitution in 2015.

The two smallest nations have also seen shifts: **Bhutan** transitioned from an absolute monarchy to a **constitutional monarchy** and multi-party democracy under its king in 2008. The **Maldives**, an island nation, changed from a Sultanate to a republic with a presidential system in 1968, moving towards a **multi-party democracy** in 2005 and holding multi-party elections since.

Despite the varied experiences with democracy across South Asia, a notable commonality is the widespread **aspiration for democracy** among the people. Recent surveys indicate strong support for democracy across the major countries of the region. Citizens from diverse backgrounds, regardless of wealth or religion, express positive views towards democracy and its institutions, preferring it over other forms of government and believing it is suitable for their countries. This finding is significant as it challenges the traditional belief that democracy flourishes only in prosperous nations, expanding the global understanding of where democracy can take root and gain popular support.

This table presents key human development indicators for South Asian countries compared to global and developing country averages, highlighting their progress and challenges in areas like life expectancy, literacy, education enrollment, GDP per capita, and health indicators.

Key historical timeline of South Asia since independence:

The Military And Democracy In Pakistan

Pakistan's political history since independence has been marked by frequent interventions of the military into civilian rule, leading to instability in its democratic journey.

After its first constitution was framed, General Ayub Khan took power, followed by General Yahya Khan after popular dissatisfaction. During Yahya Khan's military rule, Pakistan faced the crisis that led to the secession of East Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. Following this, an elected government under Zulfikar Ali Bhutto came to power (1971-1977) but was overthrown by General Zia-ul-Haq in 1977. A pro-democracy movement led to the return of civilian rule under Benazir Bhutto in 1988, followed by Nawaz Sharif. This period of competitive democracy between the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Muslim League lasted until 1999 when General Pervez Musharraf again staged a military coup, later assuming the presidency in 2001. Military rule continued, despite some elections, until Pakistan returned to democratically elected governments in 2008.

Several factors have hindered the establishment of stable democracy in Pakistan:

• The dominant social position of the **military, clergy, and landowning elite** has often resulted in the overthrow of elected governments and the imposition of military rule.
• Pakistan's ongoing conflict with **India** has empowered pro-military groups. These groups often argue that civilian political parties and democracy are flawed and detrimental to national security, justifying the army's role in power as essential for stability.

Despite these challenges, Pakistan has a strong underlying **pro-democracy sentiment**. The country has a relatively free press and active human rights movements advocating for democratic rights.

A lack of consistent **international support** for democratic institutions has also contributed to the military's continued influence. Notably, the **United States and other Western countries** have historically supported military regimes in Pakistan for their own strategic interests. In the post-9/11 era, concerns about 'global Islamic terrorism' and the potential risk to Pakistan's nuclear weapons have led Western powers to view the military regime as a protector of their interests in the region, further bolstering its position.

This cartoon satirically portrays the dual role of Pervez Musharraf, holding the titles of both President (civilian head of state) and Army General (military commander), highlighting the continued influence of the military despite nominal civilian leadership or the pretense of democratic processes under military rule.

Democracy In Bangladesh

Bangladesh's journey to democracy is intertwined with its history as part of Pakistan from 1947 to 1971 (as East Pakistan, comprising partitioned areas of Bengal and Assam). The people of this region felt politically and culturally dominated by West Pakistan, particularly resenting the imposition of Urdu and the neglect of their Bengali language and culture. They demanded fair political representation and administrative opportunities.

Sheikh Mujibur Rahman emerged as a prominent leader, spearheading the popular struggle for autonomy for East Pakistan. In the 1970 elections across Pakistan, his Awami League won a landslide victory in East Pakistan, securing a majority in the proposed national constituent assembly. However, the West Pakistan-dominated government refused to convene the assembly, leading to widespread protests. Sheikh Mujib was arrested, and the Pakistani army, under General Yahya Khan, brutally attempted to suppress the Bengali nationalist movement, resulting in thousands of deaths and a massive refugee flow into India.

India's government supported the demand for independence in East Pakistan, providing financial and military aid. This led to the Indo-Pak War in December 1971. The war concluded with the surrender of Pakistani forces in East Pakistan and the birth of **Bangladesh** as an independent nation.

This mural in Dhaka University commemorates Noor Hossain, a democracy activist killed during protests in 1987. The slogan painted on his back, "Let Democracy be Freed," symbolizes the popular yearning for democratic rule in Bangladesh after periods of military control.

After independence, Bangladesh adopted a constitution based on secularism, democracy, and socialism. However, in 1975, Sheikh Mujib amended the constitution to introduce a presidential system and banned all parties except his own Awami League, leading to internal conflict and tensions. He was assassinated in a military uprising in August 1975.

Subsequent military rulers took power. Ziaur Rahman formed the Bangladesh National Party and won elections in 1979, but was also assassinated. Lt Gen H. M. Ershad then led another military takeover. However, a strong popular movement for democracy, with students playing a key role, forced Ershad to allow limited political activity and eventually step down in 1990. Elections were held in 1991, and since then, Bangladesh has largely operated under a system of **representative democracy** with multi-party elections.

Monarchy And Democracy In Nepal

Nepal's political history transitioned from a Hindu kingdom to a constitutional monarchy. Throughout this period, political parties and the general population consistently sought a more democratic and responsive government system. However, the king, supported by the army, often maintained extensive control and limited the growth of democracy.

Following a strong pro-democracy movement, the king agreed to a new democratic constitution in 1990. Despite this, democratic governments in Nepal faced instability and were often short-lived and troubled during the 1990s.

The 1990s also saw the rise of the **Maoist movement** in Nepal, which gained influence in many areas. The Maoists advocated for armed struggle to overthrow the monarchy and the ruling elite, leading to a violent conflict with the king's armed forces. For a time, Nepal experienced a complex, three-way conflict involving the monarchist forces, pro-democracy parties, and the Maoists.

In 2002, the king dissolved the parliament and dismissed the government, effectively ending the limited democratic system that was in place. This move led to widespread, massive pro-democracy protests across the country in April 2006. This largely non-violent movement, led by a coalition known as the Seven Party Alliance (SPA), the Maoists, and social activists, achieved a major victory when the king was compelled to restore the House of Representatives.

These photos show democracy activist Durga Thapa participating in protests for democracy in 1990 and later celebrating the success of the movement in 2006, illustrating the long struggle and eventual triumph of democratic aspirations in Nepal.

Nepal's transition to democracy included a unique step: the formation of a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution. While some segments of society favored retaining a symbolic monarchy, the Maoists agreed to halt their armed struggle, advocating for radical social and economic reforms in the new constitution. Disagreements existed among the political parties regarding these proposals, and some groups, including the Maoists, harbored suspicions about the Indian government's role in Nepal's future.

In 2008, Nepal successfully abolished the monarchy and became a **democratic republic**. A new constitution was officially adopted in 2015.

Ethnic Conflict And Democracy In Sri Lanka

Unlike Pakistan and Bangladesh, Sri Lanka has successfully maintained a democratic system since its independence in 1948. However, it faced a severe challenge not from military coups or monarchy, but from prolonged **ethnic conflict** that led to a demand for a separate state by a minority group.

Following independence, Sri Lanka (then Ceylon) was politically dominated by the majority **Sinhala community**. There was significant hostility towards the large population of Tamils who had migrated from India, both before and after independence. Sinhala nationalists insisted that Sri Lanka belonged solely to the Sinhala people and opposed granting concessions to the Tamil minority. This perceived neglect of Tamil concerns fueled militant Tamil nationalism.

Starting in 1983, the militant organization known as the **Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)** engaged in an armed conflict with the Sri Lankan army. The LTTE demanded the creation of 'Tamil Eelam', a separate country for the Tamils, and controlled parts of northeastern Sri Lanka.

The conflict had implications for India due to the presence of a large Tamil population in India and their demand for the Indian government to protect the interests of Tamils in Sri Lanka. India attempted negotiations with the Sri Lankan government. In 1987, India directly intervened by signing an accord with Sri Lanka and deploying the **Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF)** to help resolve the conflict. However, the IPKF became involved in fighting with the LTTE and faced resentment from Sri Lankans who viewed it as interference in their internal affairs. The IPKF withdrew in 1989 without achieving its objectives.

This cartoon visually represents the complex and challenging task faced by Sri Lankan leaders in balancing the demands and pressures from Sinhala hardliners (the lion) and Tamil militants (the tiger) while attempting to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the ethnic conflict.

The Sri Lankan crisis remained violent for years. International actors, including Scandinavian countries like Norway, attempted to mediate negotiations between the warring parties. The armed conflict finally concluded in 2009 with the military defeat of the LTTE.

Remarkably, despite the long and devastating civil war, Sri Lanka achieved significant **economic growth** and high levels of **human development**. It was an early adopter of population control measures, the first in the region to liberalize its economy, and maintained the highest per capita GDP for many years, even amidst the conflict. Crucially, it managed to preserve its **democratic political system** throughout this turbulent period.

India-Pakistan Conflicts

Moving from internal political dynamics, we examine some of the key international conflicts in South Asia, many of which involve India due to its central geographical position in the region.

The most significant and persistent conflict is between **India and Pakistan**. Immediately after the partition of British India in 1947, the two countries became embroiled in a dispute over the status of **Kashmir**. Pakistan claimed the territory, leading to wars in 1947-48 and 1965, which failed to resolve the issue. The 1947-48 war resulted in Kashmir being divided by the Line of Control (LoC) into Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. The 1971 war, won decisively by India, also left the Kashmir issue unsettled.

Other areas of conflict include strategic issues such as control over the **Siachen glacier** and a continuing **arms race**. The arms race escalated significantly in the 1990s with both countries acquiring nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them. India conducted nuclear tests in Pokhran in 1998, followed shortly by Pakistan's tests in the Chagai Hills. While this development created a new dynamic, it has also arguably reduced the likelihood of a full-scale conventional war between the two nuclear-armed states, as the potential consequences are mutually devastating.

Despite the decreased risk of large-scale war, mutual suspicion persists. The Indian government accuses Pakistan of supporting Kashmiri militants and engaging in a strategy of 'low-key violence' against India by providing arms, training, funding, and protection for terrorist attacks. India also alleges Pakistan's involvement in aiding Khalistani militants (1985-1995) and using its Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) agency for anti-India activities in India's northeast, operating via Bangladesh and Nepal. Conversely, Pakistan's government accuses India and its intelligence agencies of fostering unrest in Pakistani provinces like Sindh and Balochistan.

This cartoon offers a satirical view of India-Pakistan negotiations, suggesting that while leaders meet, the underlying contentious issues and mutual suspicions remain prominent, making progress difficult.

India and Pakistan also face disputes over **water sharing**, particularly regarding the rivers of the Indus basin. Despite fierce early arguments, the World Bank helped mediate the **Indus Waters Treaty in 1960**, which has remarkably survived various military conflicts. However, minor disagreements persist over the interpretation and application of the treaty and water usage rights.

Another unresolved issue is the demarcation line in **Sir Creek**, a disputed area in the Rann of Kutch marshlands. Although seemingly minor, this dispute is significant due to its potential impact on controlling sea resources in the adjoining maritime area. India and Pakistan continue to hold negotiations on these various outstanding issues.

India And Its Other Neighbours

India's relationship with its other South Asian neighbors is complex, marked by areas of both cooperation and disagreement, often influenced by India's larger size and power.

India and Bangladesh: Differences have included the sharing of waters from rivers like the Ganga and Brahmaputra. India has expressed concerns about Bangladesh's handling of illegal immigration into India, alleged support for anti-Indian fundamentalist groups, refusal to allow transit for Indian troops to northeastern India, and decisions regarding natural gas exports. Bangladesh, conversely, has viewed India as acting like a regional bully regarding water sharing, interfering in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, attempting to extract its natural gas, and maintaining unfair trade practices. The border dispute also took a long time to resolve (finally addressed in 2015 with exchange of enclaves).

Despite disagreements, cooperation exists. Economic relations have improved significantly, and Bangladesh is a key partner in India's 'Act East' policy aimed at connectivity with Southeast Asia. Both countries cooperate on disaster management and environmental issues, and efforts continue to broaden cooperation.

India and Nepal: India and Nepal share a unique relationship, allowing citizens to travel and work in each other's countries without visas or passports. However, differences have occurred over trade issues. India has expressed displeasure regarding Nepal's close ties with China and perceived inaction against anti-Indian elements. Indian security agencies view the Maoist movement in Nepal and its potential links to Naxalite groups in India as a security concern. Many in Nepal believe India interferes in their internal affairs, seeks control over their water and hydroelectric resources, and hinders their access to the sea as a landlocked country.

Despite these issues, relations are generally stable and peaceful. Trade, scientific cooperation, shared natural resources, energy projects, and integrated water management systems bind the two countries. The consolidation of democracy in Nepal is hoped to further improve ties.

India and Sri Lanka: Difficulties primarily stem from the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka and the fate of the Tamil minority of Indian origin. Indian leaders and public often find it difficult to remain neutral when Tamils face political marginalization or violence. After the 1987 military intervention (IPKF), India has generally adopted a policy of non-interference in Sri Lanka's internal ethnic issues, preferring a policy of 'disengagement'. Cooperation exists through a Free Trade Agreement and India's assistance in post-tsunami reconstruction efforts, which have brought the countries closer.

India and Bhutan: India enjoys a very special relationship with Bhutan, largely free of major conflicts. Bhutan's efforts to remove Indian militant groups operating from its territory have been helpful to India. India is significantly involved in Bhutan's hydroelectric projects and is its largest source of development aid. This is a relationship marked by cooperation and mutual respect.

India and the Maldives: Ties with the Maldives are warm and cordial. India's swift military response in 1988 to a request for help against an attempted coup by mercenaries from Sri Lanka demonstrated its commitment to the Maldives' security. India also contributes to the Maldives' economic development, particularly in tourism and fisheries.

It is common for India's smaller neighbors to harbor suspicions about India's intentions due to its size and power. They often fear India's potential dominance or interference in their internal affairs. Conversely, the Indian government sometimes feels its interests are not fully appreciated or that neighbors exploit its generosity. India is also concerned that political instability in neighboring countries could allow outside powers to gain influence in the region.

However, conflicts in South Asia are not limited to India and its neighbors. Nepal and Bhutan have faced issues related to migration, as have Bangladesh and Myanmar (Rohingya). Bangladesh and Nepal have had disagreements over Himalayan river waters. Nevertheless, major conflicts often involve India, partly due to its geographical position as the only country bordering most other states in the region.

This cartoon suggests that the ongoing rivalry and conflicts between India and Pakistan (represented by the chess game) significantly hinder the progress and effectiveness of the SAARC regional cooperation initiative (the board), essentially keeping the potential for peace and cooperation (the dove) constrained.

Peace And Cooperation

Despite the numerous conflicts and tensions, South Asian states recognize the vital importance of regional cooperation for development and prosperity. The **South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)**, established in 1985, is the primary multilateral initiative for cooperation in the region. Unfortunately, persistent political differences, particularly between India and Pakistan, have limited SAARC's success.

A notable SAARC initiative is the **South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA)** agreement, signed in 2004 and effective from 1 January 2006. SAFTA aims to lower trade tariffs among member states, promising the formation of a free trade zone for South Asia.

However, SAFTA faces challenges: some smaller neighbors fear it is a strategy for India to dominate their markets and exert influence through commercial presence. India, on the other hand, believes SAFTA offers genuine economic benefits for all and that increased trade can improve political cooperation. Some in India also question SAFTA's necessity, given India already has bilateral trade agreements with countries like Bhutan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.

While India-Pakistan relations are frequently marked by conflict, there have been efforts to manage tensions and build peace. Both countries have implemented confidence-building measures to reduce the risk of war. Social activists and prominent individuals have worked to foster friendship at the people-to-people level. Leaders have held summits to improve understanding and seek solutions to major problems. Initiatives like opening bus routes and increasing cross-border trade (e.g., between the Punjabs) and easing visa regulations reflect efforts towards better relations.

South Asia is not isolated from external influences. **China and the United States** are key players in the region's politics. Sino-Indian relations have improved, but China's strategic partnership with Pakistan remains a source of concern for India. However, the demands of development and globalization have also brought India and China closer economically since 1991.

US involvement in South Asia has increased significantly since the Cold War. The US maintains good relations with both India and Pakistan and often plays a moderating role in their disputes. Economic reforms in the region and the large South Asian diaspora in the US have increased American economic stakes in the region. The size of the region's population and markets also make its security and peace important to the US.

Ultimately, whether South Asia is defined by conflict or becomes a cooperative regional bloc will depend primarily on the actions and choices of its people and governments, more so than on external powers.

These cartoons, one likely Indian and the other Pakistani, both suggest that the United States plays a role in perpetuating or exacerbating conflicts within South Asia, implying that external involvement does not necessarily promote peace in the region.

Japan

Notes on Japan were provided in the previous chapter. This section seems to be placed here as additional information about another significant Asian power, potentially as a point of comparison or contrast to the South Asian context. Japan's economic and technological strength, combined with its unique pacifist constitution and alliance with the US, positions it as a significant actor in the broader Asian region, though distinct from South Asia.

South Korea

Notes on South Korea were also provided in the previous chapter. Like Japan, South Korea represents a rapidly developed Asian economy and technological power. Its history, particularly the division of the Korean peninsula, and its strong economic presence, position it as a key player in East Asia, again offering a point of comparison to the diverse experiences within South Asia.